Situation of nuclear power
Nuclear power plants were built in the 1970s. They were designed to operate for 40 years, so those nuclear power plants will stop operating between 2018 and 2025. There are 3 nuclear power plants in Taiwan: Plants number 1 and number 2 located in New Taipei City, and plant number 3 located in Pingtung County.
All the plants operate well with a contribution of 40 billion kWh per year in average, which is 20% of the power supply of Taiwan. In 2015, with the annual maintenance of plant number 1, nuclear power plants contributed 35.143 billion kWh or 16.04% power to Taiwan.
Schedule of decommission
According to the operation license of nuclear power plants, decommission schedule and capacity are as follows: Machine 1 of plant number 1 , 636MW and December 5,2018, Machine 2, 636MW and July 15,2019, Machine 1 of plant number 2, 985MW and December 27,2021, Machine 2, 985MW and March 14,2023, Machine 1 of plant number 3, 951MW and July 26,2024, Machine 2, 951MW and May 17,2025.
A nuclear-free homeland is a policy with nationwide consensus. And 18.03% of power supply will be lost after all the nuclear power plants are decommissioned.
Energy gap will increase year after year
The power supply increased year by year after the financial crisis in 2008, while Percent Reserve Margin decreased year after year. And the Statutory Percent Reserve Margin fell to 11.5% in 2015. Obviously, "power supply reliability" got worse and worse during those years, and it is a bad trend for economic development.
If we implement the policy of "Nuclear-free Homeland", and assume all the variables are fixed, then the gap of power supply will be 21.8% or 47.8 billion kWh in 2025 to keep Statutory Percent Reserve Margin as 15%.